By The Craig Bushon Show Media Team
Wall Street has a new darling—or so they say. Rivian, the electric vehicle startup once hailed as a Tesla contender, is back in the headlines with analysts throwing around trillion-dollar terms and price targets that promise a rosy future. But let’s pump the brakes for a moment. Before retail investors get swept up in the hype, it’s worth stepping back and asking a critical question:
Are we being sold optimism… or reality?
According to a recent article making the rounds, the $1 trillion “reason” for Wall Street’s newfound love for Rivian lies in its total addressable market (TAM). If that sounds eerily familiar, it should—because it’s the same narrative that surrounded Nikola, Fisker, Lordstown, and other EV startups that flamed out just as fast as they caught fire.
Yes, Rivian has partnerships with heavyweights like Amazon (committing to 100,000 delivery vans by 2030) and Volkswagen (a $5 billion joint venture). It secured a conditional $6 billion federal loan to build out a Georgia facility. Its new R2 platform could open doors to the mid-market. All of that sounds impressive on paper. But that’s where a healthy dose of skepticism must enter the conversation.
The Numbers Don’t Lie—But They Don’t Tell the Whole Truth Either
Rivian’s stock is trading around $11. Wall Street analysts—who rarely miss a chance to oversell hope—have targets hovering near $14.70 at the time of this piece, with some stretching toward $18. In this world of make-believe valuations, that’s pitched as a 30–60% upside. But let’s remember, this same stock traded above $100 shortly after IPO. What followed was a collapse that erased billions in market cap.
The company is still losing money on every vehicle it sells, with real profitability unlikely until 2029—if things go exactly right. They’re expected to deliver fewer vehicles in 2025 than in 2024, and production scale-ups rarely go smoothly in this industry. Just ask any legacy automaker who has tried—and failed—to make EVs profitable at scale.
And the so-called “$1 trillion opportunity”? That’s not a financial model—it’s a fantasy projection. It assumes a future where EVs dominate roads, supply chains stabilize, consumers don’t balk at price tags, and federal incentives remain intact. That’s a lot of “ifs” holding up a very shaky bridge.
Hope Is Not a Strategy
Rivian may succeed. But betting on it today with blind faith is no different than believing a speculative tech bubble won’t burst—until it does.
Let’s not forget: Tesla’s trillion-dollar journey took nearly two decades, a series of near-bankruptcies, massive government subsidies, and a cult of personality in Elon Musk. Rivian is still finding its footing, burning through cash, and depending on other giants to keep the engine running. That’s not exactly the formula for market dominance.
A Familiar Story, Rewritten for a New Cycle
Wall Street has a habit of dusting off the same playbook and selling it to a new generation of hopeful investors. Bold claims, big visions, and strategic partnerships are rolled out like a parade. And when the music stops, it’s often retail investors left holding the bag.
We’re not saying Rivian will fail. We’re saying proceed with caution.
History rarely repeats exactly, but it sure rhymes. And when it comes to EV startups, the rhythm is clear: overpromise, underdeliver, and burn capital until reality bites.
So here’s our advice: tread softly. Don’t confuse a speculative rally with sustainable momentum. Keep a skeptical eye on promises wrapped in billion-dollar branding. Because in the end, the road to a $1 trillion valuation is paved not with dreams—but with durability, discipline, and real-world results.
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Craig Bushon Show Media Team
Truth, Accountability, and the Power of the Individual Investor
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